Polaris Intelligence
Polaris
Intelligence
About
Ctrl K
Sign in
© Polaris Intelligence 2026
PrivacyTermsAdmin
Launch Vehicles
Vehicle family profile

Long March 10

长征十号

Family-level launch record combining canonical variants, historical missions, public cadence forecasts, and available payload performance specs.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC)Development
Admin
Variants
3
Canonical variants linked to this family.
Historical missions
1
Missions in the public mission table with actual launch dates.
Peak listed capacity
70,000 kg
Maximum payload capacity across listed variants and orbits.

Launch Cadence

Historical missions are grouped by actual launch year. Forecast cadence uses family-level launch-rate rows.

YearHistorical missionsForecast launches
202614
202704
202806
202908
2030010
2031010
2032010
2033012
2034012
2035012
2036012
2037012
2038012
2039012
2040012
2041012

Forecast Location Split

Performance Specs

Payload capacity by variant and target orbit when structured capacity rows are available.

VariantOrbitCapacityAltitudeInclinationSource
Long March 10
LEO70,000 kgUnknownUnknownGlobalSecurity CZ-10
Long March 10
TLI27,000 kgUnknownUnknownChina State Council Long March 10

Recent Missions

Latest launched missions using variants in this family.

MissionVariantLaunch
CX-26 Mission
Long March 10B
Jul 10, 2026

Forecasted Missions

Upcoming mission rows with announced launch timing.

MissionVariantAnnounced

No forecasted missions

No upcoming announced mission rows are linked to this vehicle family.

Variants

Canonical variants rolled up into this launch vehicle family.

VariantStagesMissionsStatus
Long March 10
Not stated0Development
Long March 10A
Not stated0Development
Long March 10B
21Active

1 launch location represented.

YearLocationLaunchesConfidenceBasis
2026Wenchang Space Launch Site420%Chinese development heavy-launch variant; low-confidence default below mature Long March family rates.
2027Wenchang Space Launch Site422%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2028Wenchang Space Launch Site622%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2029Wenchang Space Launch Site822%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2030Wenchang Space Launch Site1022%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2031Wenchang Space Launch Site1022%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2032Wenchang Space Launch Site1022%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2033Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2034Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2035Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2036Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2037Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2038Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2039Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2040Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
2041Wenchang Space Launch Site1222%China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume con...
Wenchang Space Launch Site
2026 · 20% confidence
4

Chinese development heavy-launch variant; low-confidence default below mature Long March family rates.

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2027 · 22% confidence
4

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2028 · 22% confidence
6

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2029 · 22% confidence
8

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2030 · 22% confidence
10

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2031 · 22% confidence
10

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2032 · 22% confidence
10

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2033 · 22% confidence
12

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2034 · 22% confidence
12

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2035 · 22% confidence
12

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2036 · 22% confidence
12

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Wenchang Space Launch Site
2037 · 22% confidence
12

China launch cadence curve: active Long March/Gravity families scale from current low-confidence static defaults toward an analytically modeled high-volume constellation deploymen...

Long March 10B
LEO16,000 kgUnknownUnknownRocketLaunch.org Long March 10B
Long March 10A
LEO14,000 kgUnknownUnknownChina State Council Long March 10 Derivative
Track
Mentions
400
All verified mentions of this launch vehicle family in source documents.
0.0-5.0
Actions

The Long March 10A performed a first stage recovery test.

PlanGeneralValue 2.8Feb 12, 2026Ling Hang Zhe (Navigator)

Long March 10 Stage 1 test article experienced a splashdown.

Page9of20
CapabilityGeneralValue 3.0
Feb 12, 2026
More footage including booster post-splashdown, the separation of the capsule from the LAS tower after safely pulled away, and capsule splashdown:

The Long March 10A first stage splashed down.

GeneralPlanValue 4.0Feb 11, 2026Splashdown of Long March 10A first stage

The Long March 10 first stage safely splashed down in a predetermined sea area on February 11, 2026.

PlanValue 2.0Feb 11, 2026Footage showing the deployment of hooking arms of Long March 10 first stage before the splashdown

A forthcoming CZ-10 test is likely a Max-Q abort test.

PlanCapabilityValue 2.5Feb 11, 2026The nature of the test was however very much conjecture. That at least part of it is the Mengzhou IFA was finally confirmed when the amphibian vehicle explicitly marked as for capsule recovery shown up on Wenchang's beaches some days ago:

The Feb. 10 test simultaneously validated a high-altitude launch abort system for the Mengzhou crew capsule and a controlled, propulsive landing of the Long March 10 first stage.

CapabilityPlanValue 4.0Feb 11, 2026China Advances 2030 Lunar Timeline with Successful Long March 10 Integrated Test

The Long March 10A first stage splashed down.

GeneralValue 4.0Feb 11, 2026Incredible drone footage of the Long March 10A first stage splashdown! 🌊🚀 The recovery ship can be seen standing by very close. I was hoping to see the cable catching mechanism being tested at the same time, but it seems not deployed.

The Long March 10 features a reusable first-stage architecture similar to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 but optimized for the higher thrust requirements of a lunar trajectory.

CapabilityValue 3.5Feb 11, 2026China Advances 2030 Lunar Timeline with Successful Long March 10 Integrated Test

The Mengzhou spacecraft was mounted on top of a Long March 10A first stage during the launch.

GeneralPlanCapabilityValue 4.0Feb 11, 2026🚀 Liftoff at ~03:00UTC on February 11, China successfully completed the in-flight abort test for Mengzhou spacecraft. This critical safety demonstration is a massive step forward for China's crewed lunar program.

The CZ-10 test article was fitted with the Mengzhou capsule for an upcoming Max-Q and booster splashdown recovery test.

PlanValue 3.5Feb 11, 2026The whole flight vehicle with the Mengzhou capsule (somewhere between a "boilerplate" and a full capsule probably) then finally appeared in full form:

The Long March 10 test vehicle lifted off.

GeneralValue 2.0Feb 11, 2026🚀 The moment of Long March 10 (test vehicle) liftoff

The test booster for the Long March 10 was recovered using grid fins and a propulsive burn.

CapabilityValue 4.0Feb 11, 2026China Advances 2030 Lunar Timeline with Successful Long March 10 Integrated Test

The CZ-10 short test vehicle is a full-scale 1:1 test article intended for a Max-Q test.

CapabilityPlanValue 4.0Feb 11, 2026Back in last year people noticed such a short test vehicle for the LM-10(A) seems also pretty useful for just more than pad check-out & static test firing. People started to wonder whether this can be used for Mengzhou's IFA and/or LM-10A booster recovery tests. Well then...

The CZ-10 test vehicle bears the national flag of China on its side.

GeneralValue 2.0Feb 11, 2026The inclusion of grid fins and (especially) hooks seems to indicate a genuine catch attempt of this vehicle (which may go pass the Karman Line), which would be interesting to see the very least:

The Mengzhou capsule on the CZ-10 test article appears to be intermediate between a boilerplate and a full flight capsule.

GeneralValue 1.6Feb 11, 2026The whole flight vehicle with the Mengzhou capsule (somewhere between a "boilerplate" and a full capsule probably) then finally appeared in full form:

The CZ-10 stage will undergo a reentry phase.

PlanCapabilityValue 2.3Feb 11, 2026This launch will go SE from Wenchang over the South China Sea, with marine navigation warnings indicating the vehicle coming down way downrange (about half of usual Falcon 9 to ASDS distance):

The cable-catching mechanism for the Long March 10A recovery system did not appear to be deployed during the splashdown.

CapabilityGeneralValue 3.0Feb 11, 2026The splashdown:

The CZ-10 test vehicle broke up during splashdown at the connection between the static stage and the inter/grid-fin stage.

CapabilityGeneralValue 4.0Feb 11, 2026Full splash down footage of the CZ-10 test vehicle. The vehicle broke up when splash down at the exact section where the static stage & inter/grid-fin stage connects. Via

The CZ-10 test article on the pad is the same short test vehicle previously used for a static fire test for the LM-10A.

CapabilityPlanValue 3.5Feb 11, 2026Back in last year people noticed such a short test vehicle for the LM-10(A) seems also pretty useful for just more than pad check-out & static test firing. People started to wonder whether this can be used for Mengzhou's IFA and/or LM-10A booster recovery tests. Well then...

The cable-catching mechanism for the Long March 10A first stage did not appear to be deployed during the splashdown recovery.

CapabilityValue 3.0Feb 11, 2026Incredible drone footage of the Long March 10A first stage splashdown! 🌊🚀 The recovery ship can be seen standing by very close. I was hoping to see the cable catching mechanism being tested at the same time, but it seems not deployed.