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Forecasts
Launch forecast

Launch Forecast

Follow spacecraft demand through vehicle packing and annual launch capacity, then test the assumptions behind the result.

Updated Jul 18, 2026Model coverage 87,345 payloadsForecast window 2026-2040

Launch outlook

The selected spacecraft plan is packed onto likely vehicles, then limited by each family's expected annual launch rate.

Potential demand
5,329.21
Launch equivalents before vehicle assignment
Vehicle packed
5,329.21
After payload and orbit matching
Capacity scheduled
4,781.58
After annual launch-rate limits
Deferred after 2040
547.62
Demand still waiting beyond this window

Vehicle share by year

Top vehicle families and the combined remainder of the market.

Falcon 9StarshipLong March 8VulcanNew GlennOther vehicle families

Vehicle allocation

Leading families after annual launch-rate limits.

Assigned across selected years4,781.58
Falcon 91,275.84 · 26.68%
Starship434.93 · 9.1%
Long March 8320 · 6.69%
Vulcan270.86 · 5.66%
New Glenn259.26 · 5.42%
Other vehicle families2,220.7 · 46.44%