CAS-SPACE recently completed a 180-second hot fire test of the Kinecore-1 kerolox engine. | 🔥 CAS-SPACE is hot-firing the 30-ton thrust Kinecore-1 kerolox engine, aiming to conduct a 100km VTVL test flight of the reusable Lihong-2 rocket (powered by a cluster of three Kinecore-1s) later this year. | Jan 20, 2026 |
CAS-SPACE aims to conduct a 100km VTVL test flight of the reusable Lihong-2 rocket later this year. | 🔥 CAS-SPACE is hot-firing the 30-ton thrust Kinecore-1 kerolox engine, aiming to conduct a 100km VTVL test flight of the reusable Lihong-2 rocket (powered by a cluster of three Kinecore-1s) later this year. | Jan 20, 2026 |
CAS-SPACE is hot-firing the 30-ton thrust Kinecore-1 kerolox engine. | 🔥 CAS-SPACE is hot-firing the 30-ton thrust Kinecore-1 kerolox engine, aiming to conduct a 100km VTVL test flight of the reusable Lihong-2 rocket (powered by a cluster of three Kinecore-1s) later this year. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The Lihong-2 rocket is powered by a cluster of three Kinecore-1 engines. | 🔥 CAS-SPACE is hot-firing the 30-ton thrust Kinecore-1 kerolox engine, aiming to conduct a 100km VTVL test flight of the reusable Lihong-2 rocket (powered by a cluster of three Kinecore-1s) later this year. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The Kinecore-1 kerolox engine will power the Lihong-2 reusable rocket for suborbital space science experiments and tourism. | 🔥 CAS-SPACE is hot-firing the 30-ton thrust Kinecore-1 kerolox engine, aiming to conduct a 100km VTVL test flight of the reusable Lihong-2 rocket (powered by a cluster of three Kinecore-1s) later this year. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The 59th meeting of the Space Development Utilization Committee's Investigation and Safety Subcommittee was held. | Another similar gov. committee meeting has occurred in the past hours and......I don't know how to react on what's reported there, except with (⊙_(⊙_⊙)_⊙) WTF? | Jan 20, 2026 |
The meeting focused on the launch of the H3 rocket's 8th unit. | Another similar gov. committee meeting has occurred in the past hours and......I don't know how to react on what's reported there, except with (⊙_(⊙_⊙)_⊙) WTF? | Jan 20, 2026 |
Distributive materials related to the meeting were published. | Another similar gov. committee meeting has occurred in the past hours and......I don't know how to react on what's reported there, except with (⊙_(⊙_⊙)_⊙) WTF? | Jan 20, 2026 |
The catastrophic failure of the payload attach fitting (PAF) occurred shortly after the fairing pyrotechnics fired. | Basically the failure investigation's now all on the payload attach fitting (PAF), of which all those telemetry data (will be talked about later here) almost certain shows some kind of catastrophic failure happening on it within a blink of eye of the fairing pyrotechnics firing. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The failure investigation is focused on the payload attach fitting (PAF). | Basically the failure investigation's now all on the payload attach fitting (PAF), of which all those telemetry data (will be talked about later here) almost certain shows some kind of catastrophic failure happening on it within a blink of eye of the fairing pyrotechnics firing. | Jan 20, 2026 |
Telemetry data indicates a catastrophic failure of the payload attach fitting (PAF). | Basically the failure investigation's now all on the payload attach fitting (PAF), of which all those telemetry data (will be talked about later here) almost certain shows some kind of catastrophic failure happening on it within a blink of eye of the fairing pyrotechnics firing. | Jan 20, 2026 |
JAXA is certain that the QZS-5 satellite was flung out of the rocket after MECO. | And JAXA now seems fairly certain the previous stunning hypothesis of the QZS-5 satellite being flung out of the rocket after MECO (yes, you read it right) has indeed happened. Temperature sensors readings on the PAF (black & yellow lines) went off-scale high... | Jan 20, 2026 |
Temperature sensor readings on the PAF went off-scale high. | And JAXA now seems fairly certain the previous stunning hypothesis of the QZS-5 satellite being flung out of the rocket after MECO (yes, you read it right) has indeed happened. Temperature sensors readings on the PAF (black & yellow lines) went off-scale high... | Jan 20, 2026 |
Rocket camera footage supports the findings from the accelerometer data. | ...while accelerometers (blue - along flight axis - & green for pitch/yaw) also clearly shows readings consistent w/ loss of signal about ~2.5 s after MECO signal issuance. Combined w/ rocket camera footage and there is just no other plausible scenarios than this. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The accelerometers show readings consistent with a loss of signal approximately 2.5 seconds after the MECO signal issuance. | ...while accelerometers (blue - along flight axis - & green for pitch/yaw) also clearly shows readings consistent w/ loss of signal about ~2.5 s after MECO signal issuance. Combined w/ rocket camera footage and there is just no other plausible scenarios than this. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The axial accelerometer shows abnormally low acceleration in the quarter of a second after fairing separation. | Now for detailed acceleration readings at fairing sep., the normal shock from pyros firing is there, but the axial accelerometer shows abnormally low accel. in the quarter of second after (red zone), followed by multiple abnormal peaks in the yellow zone for the next 2 seconds. | Jan 20, 2026 |
At fairing separation, the normal shock from pyros firing is present. | Now for detailed acceleration readings at fairing sep., the normal shock from pyros firing is there, but the axial accelerometer shows abnormally low accel. in the quarter of second after (red zone), followed by multiple abnormal peaks in the yellow zone for the next 2 seconds. | Jan 20, 2026 |
Multiple abnormal peaks were recorded in the yellow zone for the next 2 seconds after fairing separation. | Now for detailed acceleration readings at fairing sep., the normal shock from pyros firing is there, but the axial accelerometer shows abnormally low accel. in the quarter of second after (red zone), followed by multiple abnormal peaks in the yellow zone for the next 2 seconds. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The pitch and yaw accelerometers showed lesser peaks in the yellow zone, indicating axial direction movement. | This almost certainly shows some kind of movement within 0.1 s of the pyro firing signal, followed by some kind of physical collision sensed on the PAF. Since the pitch & yaw accelerometers shows lesser peaks in the yellow zone, this seems to indicate axial direction movement. | Jan 20, 2026 |
A physical collision was sensed on the PAF. | This almost certainly shows some kind of movement within 0.1 s of the pyro firing signal, followed by some kind of physical collision sensed on the PAF. Since the pitch & yaw accelerometers shows lesser peaks in the yellow zone, this seems to indicate axial direction movement. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The pyro firing signal was followed by movement within 0.1 seconds. | This almost certainly shows some kind of movement within 0.1 s of the pyro firing signal, followed by some kind of physical collision sensed on the PAF. Since the pitch & yaw accelerometers shows lesser peaks in the yellow zone, this seems to indicate axial direction movement. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The exterior MLI layer of the satellite was ripped off, exposing its interior panels. | The forward looking rocket camera makes this absolutely clear - right after the PAF damage, the satellite was clearly leaning on one side at a significant angle on the PAF, with the exterior MLI layer ripped off as well and exposing the satellite's interior panels: | Jan 20, 2026 |
The forward-looking rocket camera captured the satellite leaning at a significant angle after PAF damage. | The forward looking rocket camera makes this absolutely clear - right after the PAF damage, the satellite was clearly leaning on one side at a significant angle on the PAF, with the exterior MLI layer ripped off as well and exposing the satellite's interior panels: | Jan 20, 2026 |
The flight F8 exhibited a payload leaning to one side in the final 75 seconds of the first stage flight. | Comparing this flight (F8) w/ how it looks on previous flights (ill-fated TF1 w/ ALOS-3, TF2 w/ dummy VEP-4, F3 w/ ALOS-4 & most importantly F5 w/ QZS-7, very similar to QZS-5) and it's clear how the payload's leaning on one side in the final 75 seconds of 1st stage flight. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The 2nd stage of the rocket had a first burn that was 5% longer than planned. | Of course, the extraordinary idea of the satellite flung out of the 2nd stage during stage separation came from the rocket cameras, but the thing that the 2nd stage 1st burn was only 5% longer when the engine thrust was 20%-35% lower than planned also pretty much nailed it down. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The engine thrust during the 2nd stage first burn was 20%-35% lower than planned. | Of course, the extraordinary idea of the satellite flung out of the 2nd stage during stage separation came from the rocket cameras, but the thing that the 2nd stage 1st burn was only 5% longer when the engine thrust was 20%-35% lower than planned also pretty much nailed it down. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The second stage LH2 pressurization pipeline was damaged by the PAF at fairing separation. | While completely irrelevant to the outcome now, further investigations also confirms the 2nd stage LH2 pressurization pipeline was definitely damaged by the PAF at fairing separation. Temperature sensors on the satellite separation plane (yellow/red) & inside PAF (blue)... | Jan 20, 2026 |
Temperature sensors are located on the satellite separation plane and inside the PAF. | While completely irrelevant to the outcome now, further investigations also confirms the 2nd stage LH2 pressurization pipeline was definitely damaged by the PAF at fairing separation. Temperature sensors on the satellite separation plane (yellow/red) & inside PAF (blue)... | Jan 20, 2026 |
Both temperature and gas pressure drop after fairing separation. | ...both shows temperature drop after fairing sep., as are the gas temp. (pink) & pressure (black) inside the 2nd stage LH2 tank - specifically in the "yellow zone" thought to be after PAF collided w/ something as a result of strange things happening in the "red zone". | Jan 20, 2026 |
The yellow zone temperature and pressure drop is believed to be a result of a collision involving PAF. | ...both shows temperature drop after fairing sep., as are the gas temp. (pink) & pressure (black) inside the 2nd stage LH2 tank - specifically in the "yellow zone" thought to be after PAF collided w/ something as a result of strange things happening in the "red zone". | Jan 20, 2026 |
The temperature and gas pressure inside the second stage LH2 tank decrease in the yellow zone. | ...both shows temperature drop after fairing sep., as are the gas temp. (pink) & pressure (black) inside the 2nd stage LH2 tank - specifically in the "yellow zone" thought to be after PAF collided w/ something as a result of strange things happening in the "red zone". | Jan 20, 2026 |
The FTPV is a gas helium regulating valve that pressurizes the LH2 tank before second stage ignition. | The lighter blue line shows the voltage acting on the FTPV, a gas helium regulating valve that pressurizes the LH2 tank before 2nd stage ignition. You can see that the valve was constantly open to try to keep LH2 pressure after fairing sep., but clearly unable to do so. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The FTPV was constantly open after fairing separation to maintain LH2 pressure. | The lighter blue line shows the voltage acting on the FTPV, a gas helium regulating valve that pressurizes the LH2 tank before 2nd stage ignition. You can see that the valve was constantly open to try to keep LH2 pressure after fairing sep., but clearly unable to do so. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The FTPV was unable to maintain LH2 pressure after fairing separation. | The lighter blue line shows the voltage acting on the FTPV, a gas helium regulating valve that pressurizes the LH2 tank before 2nd stage ignition. You can see that the valve was constantly open to try to keep LH2 pressure after fairing sep., but clearly unable to do so. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The voltage acting on the FTPV was shown as a lighter blue line. | The lighter blue line shows the voltage acting on the FTPV, a gas helium regulating valve that pressurizes the LH2 tank before 2nd stage ignition. You can see that the valve was constantly open to try to keep LH2 pressure after fairing sep., but clearly unable to do so. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The PAF suffered catastrophic failure from the fairing separation shock. | This all points to a scenario where the PAF suffered catastrophic failure from the fairing separation shock, possibly falling down to one side & severely damaging the payload + damaging the 2nd stage pressurizing feed line. After about another 1:15 MECO & stage sep. occurred... | Jan 20, 2026 |
The payload was severely damaged during the failure. | This all points to a scenario where the PAF suffered catastrophic failure from the fairing separation shock, possibly falling down to one side & severely damaging the payload + damaging the 2nd stage pressurizing feed line. After about another 1:15 MECO & stage sep. occurred... | Jan 20, 2026 |
The second stage pressurizing feed line was damaged. | This all points to a scenario where the PAF suffered catastrophic failure from the fairing separation shock, possibly falling down to one side & severely damaging the payload + damaging the 2nd stage pressurizing feed line. After about another 1:15 MECO & stage sep. occurred... | Jan 20, 2026 |
MECO and stage separation occurred approximately 1 minute and 15 seconds after the incident. | This all points to a scenario where the PAF suffered catastrophic failure from the fairing separation shock, possibly falling down to one side & severely damaging the payload + damaging the 2nd stage pressurizing feed line. After about another 1:15 MECO & stage sep. occurred... | Jan 20, 2026 |
The second stage engine failed to restart. | ...& extra shock apparently finally cracked the PAF into 2 & flung the whole satellite away, leaving the 2nd stage to ignite w/ nothing left on top. LH2 pressure would keep decreasing & 2nd stage engine thrust keeps decaying until it failed to restart, but that's irrelevant now. | Jan 20, 2026 |
LH2 pressure on the second stage kept decreasing until the engine thrust decayed. | ...& extra shock apparently finally cracked the PAF into 2 & flung the whole satellite away, leaving the 2nd stage to ignite w/ nothing left on top. LH2 pressure would keep decreasing & 2nd stage engine thrust keeps decaying until it failed to restart, but that's irrelevant now. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The second stage ignited with nothing left on top after the satellite was detached. | ...& extra shock apparently finally cracked the PAF into 2 & flung the whole satellite away, leaving the 2nd stage to ignite w/ nothing left on top. LH2 pressure would keep decreasing & 2nd stage engine thrust keeps decaying until it failed to restart, but that's irrelevant now. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The PAF cracked and caused the satellite to be flung away. | ...& extra shock apparently finally cracked the PAF into 2 & flung the whole satellite away, leaving the 2nd stage to ignite w/ nothing left on top. LH2 pressure would keep decreasing & 2nd stage engine thrust keeps decaying until it failed to restart, but that's irrelevant now. | Jan 20, 2026 |
Potential causes of the accident include improper PAF installation, a manufacturing or design flaw of the PAF, and mechanical resonance. | Whether the failure reason's improper PAF installation, manufacturing/design flaw of the PAF, mechanical resonance or inner pressure @ fairing sep. not taken into account, fairing collision or even combustion of unknown origin, this is a highly bizarre accident to investigate on. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The inner pressure at fairing separation or a fairing collision may have contributed to the accident. | Whether the failure reason's improper PAF installation, manufacturing/design flaw of the PAF, mechanical resonance or inner pressure @ fairing sep. not taken into account, fairing collision or even combustion of unknown origin, this is a highly bizarre accident to investigate on. | Jan 20, 2026 |
An investigation is ongoing into the failure reason behind a bizarre accident involving the PAF. | Whether the failure reason's improper PAF installation, manufacturing/design flaw of the PAF, mechanical resonance or inner pressure @ fairing sep. not taken into account, fairing collision or even combustion of unknown origin, this is a highly bizarre accident to investigate on. | Jan 20, 2026 |
The accident may also involve combustion of unknown origin. | Whether the failure reason's improper PAF installation, manufacturing/design flaw of the PAF, mechanical resonance or inner pressure @ fairing sep. not taken into account, fairing collision or even combustion of unknown origin, this is a highly bizarre accident to investigate on. | Jan 20, 2026 |
JAXA indicates that they might have lost the entire QZS-5 satellite at some point. | The H3-F8/QZS-5 launch failure just got a whole lot weirder. Further analysis by JAXA indicates the payload adapter was damaged during fairing separation, causing the satellite to separate with part of the adapter when thrust from the rocket ended during MECO. | Jan 20, 2026 |
JAXA's further analysis indicates that the payload adapter was damaged during fairing separation in the H3-F8/QZS-5 launch. | The H3-F8/QZS-5 launch failure just got a whole lot weirder. Further analysis by JAXA indicates the payload adapter was damaged during fairing separation, causing the satellite to separate with part of the adapter when thrust from the rocket ended during MECO. | Jan 20, 2026 |
Initial analysis from JAXA suggests that the failure started at fairing separation with abnormal accelerations measured on the payload adapter. | The H3-F8/QZS-5 launch failure just got a whole lot weirder. Further analysis by JAXA indicates the payload adapter was damaged during fairing separation, causing the satellite to separate with part of the adapter when thrust from the rocket ended during MECO. | Jan 20, 2026 |